๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ป ๐๐น-๐ฅ๐๐ณ๐ฎ๐ถ ๐๐ฑ๐บ๐ถ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ก๐ฆ๐’๐ ๐ฃ๐ต๐ผ๐ป๐ฒโ๐๐ป๐ฑ ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐๐ฒ’๐ ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ’๐น๐น ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐ธ ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ
The question hanging over Abuja right now is not whether El-Rufai broke the law.
He admitted that on national television.
The real question is: Why would a man with 30 years in governmentโwho wrote the book on how the system worksโvoluntarily confess to a felony unless he knew something we don’t?
On Monday, the DSS filed charges against him for unlawful interception of communications. By February 25, he will stand in court.
But El-Rufai is not panicking. He is not fleeing. He is not apologizing.
And that should tell you everything.
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๐ญ. ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ข๐จ๐ก๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ก๐๐ ๐ง๐ฅ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ๐ข๐ก๐ ๐๐ฆ ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐ก๐
Here is what the headlines will not tell you:
Between 2000 and 2007, Nasir El-Rufai and Nuhu Ribadu were inseparable.
They served together in Obasanjo’s government. They were the twin faces of Nigeria’s reform agendaโEl-Rufai cleaning up the FCT, Ribadu building the EFCC into a feared anti-corruption machine. They were described as allies who “fought the same battles, shared the same vision, and trusted each other with the kind of knowledge that binds men forever.”
Today, Ribadu sits as National Security Adviser, wielding the full power of the state.
El-Rufai stands as the fiercest opposition voice threatening to unseat the government.
In politics, when one man holds power and the other holds secrets, something has to give.
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๐ฎ. ๐ช๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ฉ๐๐ฅ๐ก๐ ๐๐ก๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐๐
Let us be honest about how this works.
El-Rufai is not just another critic. He is a heavyweight who knows exactly where every lever of power is locatedโbecause he helped install some of them. When a man like that defects to the opposition and starts drawing battle lines, the party in power has two choices:
๐ญ. Let him campaign against you with insider knowledge
๐ฎ. Find a way to stop him
The most effective way? Go after his finances. Dig up his administration. Find somethingโanythingโthat can be weaponized.
And so the EFCC invitation came. The ICPC summons followed. The machinery began to move.
El-Rufai has said it himself, repeatedly: “They’ve been working so hard to find evidence against me since I left office. They even worked with Governor Uba Sani. They found nothing. Until now.”
But here is what El-Rufai knows that his supporters may not fully grasp: The government does not need to find evidence. They only need to hold you long enough to create the impression of evidence.
So what does a man facing that reality do?
He fights back. But not with protests. With strategy.
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๐ฏ. ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ฆ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ก๐๐ ๐ฃ๐ข๐๐๐๐ฌ: ๐๐๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐๐๐จ๐
Watch how a master plays this game.
On February 13, 2026, Arise TV interview:
El-Rufai mentions, almost casually, that he was “a little ill” in Egypt but is now fine. He volunteers to release his complete medical recordsโand specifically states he will frame them to insure he is not wrongly “perceived as severely ill.”
Why?
Because if something happens to him in custodyโif he falls suddenly ill, if he dies unexpectedlyโthe public already has a narrative. His enemies cannot spin it as a pre-existing condition. The world is watching his vital signs.
Then, the thallium sulphate allegation:
He goes further. He publicly accuses the Office of the National Security Adviser of importing 10 kilograms of Thallium Sulphate from Polandโa colorless, odorless poison.
Think about the brilliance of this move.
He is not just defending himself. He is painting a target on his back and simultaneously pointing a camera at it. He is telling the world: If I am poisoned, you know who has the poison. You know who ordered it. You know where it came from.
The ONSA denied it. The DSS is now “investigating” it. But the allegation has already done its work: it has created mutual assured destruction.
El-Rufai is holding a grenade. And he wants everyone to see that his finger is on the pin.
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๐ฐ. ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฃ๐๐ข๐ก๐ ๐ง๐๐ฃ ๐๐ข๐ก๐๐๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ก: ๐ช๐๐ฌ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ง
Now we arrive at the most puzzling piece of this puzzle.
On live television, El-Rufai stated that someone tapped NSA Nuhu Ribadu’s phone and gave him information about Ribadu ordering his arrest. He openly admitted this was “technically illegal.”
A presidential aide immediately pounced: “He has provided the reason for his arrest.”
A lawyer petitioned the DSS to investigate him under the Cybercrimes Act.
And on February 19, the DSS filed a three-count charge against him.
So again: Why would a man with El-Rufai’s legal knowledge confess to a crime unless the confession itself is part of the strategy?
Here is my reading:
El-Rufai is not confessing to a crime. He is exposing a pattern.
By admitting he listened to Ribadu’s tapped call, he forces the public to ask: Who tapped the NSA’s phone in the first place? How did that recording get to El-Rufai? And what else is on it?
He is shifting the spotlight from “El-Rufai broke the law” to “Ribadu’s phone is being tapped, and here is what we heard.”
And this is where the old alliance becomes the centerpiece.
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๐ฑ. ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ณ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ข๐๐ฅ: ๐ช๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐ฃ๐ข๐ช๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ฆ
In 2013, El-Rufai published his memoir, The Accidental Public Servant.
In it, he documented something remarkable about his time with Ribadu.
When Obasanjo was preparing to anoint Umaru Yar’Adua as his successor in 2007, El-Rufai claims Ribadu took extraordinary steps to clear the path for El-Rufai instead. According to the memoir, Ribadu “dusted off EFCC files and combed for petitions against Yar’Adua. He even arrested some local government chairmen from Katsina as part of his investigation of diversion of local government funds by the state governor.”
The goal? To take Yar’Adua out of the race. To narrow the options to zero except for El-Rufai.
Let that sink in.
The same Nuhu Ribadu who now heads national security once weaponized the EFCC for political ends against a presidential candidate.
And El-Rufai has this documented. In his own book. Published in 2013. Sitting in archives. Available for anyone to read.
Now connect the dots.
When El-Rufai claims someone tapped Ribadu’s phone, his underlying logic becomes clear: How can the man who pioneered the weaponization of security agencies for political gain now cry foul when accused of doing the same thing?
He is not defending himself. He is indicting his accuser with the same chargeโbased on their shared history.
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๐ฒ. ๐ช๐๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐๐จ ๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐๐๐๐ก๐ง
Notice something important:
Throughout this entire saga, Nuhu Ribadu has remained largely silent.
In Nigerian political warfare, the silent one is usually calculating, not weak. But silence can also mean something else: it can mean the allegations are true enough that responding only draws more attention to them.
Ribadu’s allies have spoken. The DSS has acted. The courts are moving.
But Ribadu himself? Nothing.
And that silence may be the most telling evidence of all.
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๐ณ. ๐ ๐ฌ ๐ฃ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ก๐ฆ: ๐ช๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐ฃ๐ฃ๐๐ก๐ฆ ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ง
Here is what I believe will unfold based on connecting the available facts:
โถ February 25, 2026: The Arraignment
El-Rufai will appear in court. His lawyers will argue political persecution. They will point to the thallium allegation and ask: Why is the government investigating the victim while ignoring the accusation against the NSA?
The judge will have a problem: how do you try a man for intercepting communications when the man he allegedly intercepted is the head of all security agenciesโand when the substance of that interception suggests the NSA was ordering his arrest without due process?
โถ The Coming Weeks: A Legal Stalemate
Civil society will pressure the DSS to investigate the thallium importation claims with the same vigor they are investigating El-Rufai. The NSA’s office will be forced to respondโor remain silent and let suspicion grow.
El-Rufai’s legal team will file for bail, for injunctions, for anything that delays detention. Meanwhile, his political allies will keep the narrative alive on social media and television.
โถ The Long Game: Managed Retreat
If my analysis is correct, here is the final outcome:
The government will realize that taking El-Rufai down completely would require exposing things they cannot afford to expose. The 2007 memoir is just the beginning. There is more. There is always more when two men have worked together in the dark for years.
Eventually, the case will be resolved in a way that allows him to walk freeโperhaps with conditions, perhaps with fines, perhaps with the charges reduced to something symbolic.
Because in Nigerian politics, when two former allies who know each other’s deepest secrets go to war, the outcome is rarely total victory for one side.
It is a managed retreat. With both sides claiming vindication.
And El-Rufai? He emerges as a martyr of persecution, his political capital within the opposition skyrocketing just in time for 2027.
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๐ด. ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ง
El-Rufai walked onto that Arise TV set knowing exactly what he was doing.
He confessed to a crime to expose a greater one.
He revealed his health status to protect against what might happen in custody.
He accused the NSA of importing poison to make sure no poison touches him.
And he invoked 2007 to remind everyone that the man now pursuing him once played the same game.
This is not a man defending himself.
This is a man who has calculated that the secrets he holds are worth more than the crimes he committed.
And so far, the silence from the other side suggests he may be right.
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We will keep you updated as this gripping political drama unfolds.
โ๐๐ฎ๐ณ๐ถ๐ ๐. ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐๐ฟ
Political Commentary | Public Affairs | Strategic Analysis
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