I don’t know if the state visit to the former colonizer has emboldened him, but what Tinubu is doing to the North is dangerous to his political survival and to the country — and it will come back and bite him badly.
Nasir El-Rufai is not a houseboy. He is not some irrelevant provincial politician. He is one of the most powerful and influential Northerners in Nigeria’s post-independence history — a man with deep roots in the Fulani establishment and the Arewa networks where real Northern power is actually held. Mistreating him this visibly, this brutally — bouncing him between agencies, defying court orders, blocking his doctors, keeping him in a legal dungeon for 91 days — is putting a gun to your own head. Tinubu is playing Russian roulette, and one of those pulls on the trigger will be the bullet that blows his brains out.
I have no personal relationship with El-Rufai. His weakness is that he talks too much on camera. But talking too much does not justify the disrespectful, inhumane, and constitutionally obscene way Tinubu is treating him. A court grants bail and the DSS re-arrests him in the corridor. That is not governance. That is a gangster running a vendetta.
My prediction: it will be Tinubu himself we see in handcuffs one day — or his son Seyi — denied bail after bail is granted, denied medical attention. Karma is not a metaphor in Nigerian politics. It is a historical pattern.
If Tinubu’s message to the North is that their days of pushing people around are over — was it not the North that enabled him to have his turn, as he himself called it? You do not burn the bridge after you have crossed the river.
The security situation in the North is catastrophic. Jos — ten minutes into that city and he was gone. The most damning exhibition of cowardice and incompetence I have witnessed from any Nigerian head of state. He flees real problems and then, like a ten-year-old schoolboy, takes revenge on a man whose only crime is not liking him and saying so publicly.
I know the North. The silence, the stillness, the calculation behind the stares. They are counting. They are measuring. They have not been this angry since 1966. And as a man whose mother was Yoruba — the Yorubas will dump Tinubu like a burning coal the moment the bottom falls out. He is not worth dying for.
The North is watching. The country is watching. And June 1st is coming.
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